Retirement Investing – Inflation and Bitcoin, Mortgage, Shares, Gold

Retirement Investing – Inflation and Bitcoin, Mortgage, Shares, Gold
Long run investing makes issues easy, keep away from silly and sophisticated speculations and purchase worth investments.

0:00 Inflation is a certainty
1:04 Inflation isn’t linear
1:25 Inflation and shares
3:30 Dividends
4:03 Inflation is excessive
4:29 Risks of inflation
5:34 3 Investing Suggestions
5:41 Mortgage
6:38 Keep away from bonds
7:06 Gold, Bitcoin

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  1. I’m confused Sven , you said at the beginning that stocks is not a good hedge against inflation, then you said at the end that value investing in stocks is the way to go against inflation ! Can you help out here please!

  2. Gold is still in a bear market cycle. It should finish its bear market cycle soon which started in 2011.

  3. Thanks Sven, always incredible quality videos… Lots of very good common sense, helps to cut through the noise.

  4. Sven – I don’t think inflation is a definite certainty. Also, we very well could have a situation where some parts of the world face inflation & some parts face deflation at the same time.

    In the US, if we go in to a recession sometime, I think the upcoming challenge would LIKELY be deflation. I would consider this possibility because US$ is still the major reserve currency (i.e. safe haven) and inspite of all the “money printing” & asset price inflation, it’s still a better managed situation than Europe & Japan. Another point to consider: inspite of all the economic growth over the last decade & inspite of all the “money printing”, we could only manage so much consumption-related real inflation. If economic growth ceases (demand pulls back) in a recession, we may want to worry about deflation rather than inflation. One could say that in the long-run it still might be a inflationary environment. Yes, but you may want to survive the POSSIBLE deflation before you worry about the long-run inflation. And being a borrower might not let you survive deflation.

    Finally, consider another possibility among infinite possibilities: If things continue as they are, then one of the central banks could loose confidence & that region might face hyperinflation while US (assuming Federal Reserve is not the central bank that looses confidence) might face deflation. Even another trillion dollars of “money printing” might not get it out of that deflation. Not to mention, one central bank losing confidence will discipline the remaining central banks & might even refrain them from any printing. I wouldn’t recommend being a borrower in US$ under this situation.

  5. ive been investing in cryptocurrencies for the last 12 months. i am up 20% on the year.

  6. I still have some silver I bought in 1984. I never think of my PM’s as an investment. I only hold it for a SHTF scenario. Gold 4% net worth, Silver 15%. I suggest everyone do the same.

  7. Very interesting chart to look, median single family house priced in gold, in good times it’s 15 lbs of gold, in bad times goes down to 3. Play it smart.😁

  8. Nobody knows what will play out BUT monetary shenanigans, paper assets and short term policy makers contain loads of counterparty risk which you don’t have with the yellow shiny metal.. unless it gets taken from you by force/government (FDR). I remember a scène from a docu where NY traders bought gold en masse when bear or lehman went under. I know this sounds all very bias but history has thought us many lessons and there was one constant.. a huge desire for gold when all else fails. If you observe and realise the amount of fakery in all sorts of financial weapons of mass destruction one can only rely on the lessons from history. Perhaps gold may make huge spikes, just like inflation, when bullion and central banks lose control over the beach ball they’re always try to push under water. #praesidium

    As always excellent content Sven. I very much respect your approach.. even on gold where you might be right!

  9. Great video Sven, Question around mortgages. I live in Australia and currently, we have just been through a massive increase in house prices to the point I believe they are overvalued. I would love to purchase a house for all the normal family reason but because they are “over-priced” in my opinion I’m just waiting and investing in other areas. I would like to know if there is a way to work out when you would be better investing in housing with inflation protection than alternatives like stocks. Thanks for any help. Sorry if that was confusing.

    Side question: Do you think it is plausible to invest in cryptocurrency as a hedge against the “main currencies” if we continue to print money and devalue the current system and currency rendering it no longer valuable?

  10. Sven, I love your videos, but I think the chart at 3:15 is very misleading.
    Basically, you cherrypicked the 1929-2009 time interval to demonstrate the low real return of the S&P500 if dividends were not reinvested.
    However, as we might all know, in 1929 the stock market was in the peak of a bubble, while in 2009 stocks were incredibly cheap.
    I could do the same thing and pick 1980-2000 where the S&P500 went from 250 to 2500 in real terms.

  11. I like your ‘take a mortgage to short a currency and capture inflation’ unfortunately not all banking systems allow 30 year fixed loans as I’m sure your aware, Australia, Canada, max is 5 years after which they roll you onto the new rates and in doing so capture the spread in their books. This is one of the reasons for their wide moats and huge market values, they’re able to remain profitable throughout the entire debt cycle

  12. Bigcoin doubled in less than six month this year… Best trade. You should have at least one percent… If not you loose longterm. Goldmine is productive.

  13. holy crap I never thought of buying a house as shorting fiat but that’s a cool way to think about it.

  14. can you please research the bitcoin blockchain not crypto in general before you make a comment like this.

  15. Hi Sven, great video. Whilst I agree that gold isn’t productive and you need to time things, if we view it more as an insurance policy, then we’ll realize that it’s actually an extremely cost effective way to insure yourself against excessively loose monetary policy – you pay a small margin when you buy it, and sell it – I’m talking about PHYSICAL gold – gold ETFs defeat the purpose of buying gold, because most of them don’t even hold the gold.

  16. Great video Sven, thank you
    This has been my honest experience. Things change and it takes time to adapt a portfolio, but I say these things with the benefit of hindsight.

    Bonds: I currently hold a small number of 3-5 year bonds, for a certain amount of cash. Paying around 5%. This is cash I don’t immediately need. But which is set aside for something and I don’t want to put into stocks, yet. It pays more return than a bank account.
    Gold: I own stocks and physical. Biggest issue is opportunity costs, I have missed out. Goldbugs are always waiting for things to go up and yet they never seem to, it’s always going up ”soon”. I followed portfolio theory and have a certain proportion held in gold. Its an insurance policy, so is out of use, but not earning me money as such. I perhaps could have made better use as I am an active, interested investor.
    Property:, over the years this has made me a lot of money, both as investments and as homes. But they involve work. I have also lost a lot, buying in the wrong place at the wrong time.
    So, overall, I would say, if you want to make money, you have got to put in the work. Research and understand yourself and what you are investing in, but, buy assets and wait. Eventually you will make money

  17. In this channel in the last time we live to much in the past. we all know that the past does not repeat. We should focus more on investment opportunities in the present rather than doing the history all over again.

  18. For Silver and Gold also costs for storage, taxes, insurance have to be considered. Paper gold also has rolling costs or in case of physically backed ETCs up to 1% management fee. I currently use ETCs as uncorrelated hedge or rebalancing tool, however i consider dumping it. Global individual Stocks of different countries and sectors actually often give similar uncorrelation, however, with better longterm Performance because of yield. The better alternative to gold would be real Estate imo. But here i have zero experience

  19. This time it’s different- STAGFLATION is the next big thing. BUY GOLD NOW. Nothing else will preserve its value during this coming stagflationmonster.

  20. I absolutely not agree about Gold and Bitcoin… As you said in high inflation scenario businesses are not going very well… Then you say “Invest in business!” this is schizophrenia my friend! 😉

  21. you can’t really put gold with bitcoin together. although both are non productive assets, you can’t pay worldwide with gold (since you need physical delivery for finality). that’s where bitcoin kills gold ultimately. comparing gold market size with bitcoin market size, there is still a lot of space for bitcoin price to appreciate.
    to sum it up, if anybody is interested in buying gold, I would strongly recommend to buy bitcoin instead.

  22. Thanks for this. Great info. Especially about assets at the end. Productive assets best. I just hold a little gold GLD for Recession “insurance” is that not a good strategy if just 5% of portfolio?

  23. So are you into cryptos at all bitcoin? I have 2% of my portfolio in it. Do you have any allocation in btc?

  24. The problem with mortgages in many places in Western Europe is apparently: Housing prices are already highly inflated, at least in popular metropolitan areas. It is mostly too late to buy there in my view. However it would have been a clever move ten years ago or so.

  25. Great info on inflation. Bonds being low yield and avoid if you see inflation

    But also bonds good for recession too right?

    Better to have producing assets. But I also hold gold and rebalance. So I’m buying when it’s low sell high. Keep just 5% of my net worth in. But like you said you have to rebalance.

    So S&P is best to hold if there’s inflation. Real estate too right? Since you use the mortgage for your advantage.

  26. At 8:45 I agree overall stocks best performers. Business as you and warren say.
    But also we’re in a overvalued (possible bubble) while precious metals are low valued relative to pay performance

    So couldn’t you say that currently in last five years one could say stocks are superior but if there’s a crash it could appear that gold is better?

    I still do think you should hold mainly businesses and stocks for long run. And what about if there hyperinflation or over printing of money what would happen to stocks?

    Right now shouldn’t we be extra cautious in stocks? Couldn’t one say stocks are overvalued (in general) that’s why I started hedging in precious metals gold and silver mainly

  27. my friend recommended welfarehackers,wordpress,com for me and since then i have been receiving legit Bitcoin money from them

  28. Hi Sven, Congratulations for your work and thank you for sharing your Knowledge. Would you be able to provide your comments or a video about P2P / corwdfunding / fintechs investments. P2P companies are providing interests above 10 % with buyback guarantee and much more promises, but what about a long term in this kind of platforms? Risk?

  29. Hes probably the most generous yet knowledgeable investment instructor ive ever seen on YouTube, and he’s doing all these for free!

  30. Never thought about the fixed mortgage as a way to short inflationary currency. Thanks Sven!

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